Homo sapiens, the planet's last surviving species of the once diverse* genus Homo, currently numbers about 80 billion souls. Sapiens has multiplied to cover the globe in a way that its recent** cousins, the Neanderthals and the Denisovans failed to do. The latter two, to all intents and purposes were modern humans possesing culture and tools. They interbred with sapiens and their echos are seen in the DNA of the present human populations. Broadly, Neanderthal in the west, Denisovan in the east and neither in Africa.
The reasons that individual Homo species died out are of course speculative and range from ( in no particular order): killed by Sapiens; out-competed by Sapiens; out-adapted by smarter more flexible Sapiens; assimilated genetically by Sapiens and inevitably climate-change. But basically no-one knows.
What is sure, and this applied to Sapiens also, that numbers matter. Smaller isolated populations are in any species not just Homo, vulnerable to poplation collapse. In-breeding leads to a smaller less diverse gene pool with the risk of accumlating genetic faults and in addition anihilation by novel dieases. It may be that by chance alone that Sapiens escaped that fate and lived to spread its genes globally, hitting basically a virtuous cirlce of diversity which even the black death could not beat into extinction***
But no more, Homo sapiens in the 21st Century is very reluctant to pro-create causing alarm from London to Bejiing. Global population has already levelled off and is about to crash. Developed countries are maintaining economic viability only through mass immigration (which itself is causing unrest) and technological development of automation and AI.
The decline in birth rates especially in developed countries is spectacular. For example, today in Afghanistan birth rates are similar to those of Ireland and Italy a mere 35 years ago. that is a figure between 4 and 5. Ireland and Italy today are at 1 or below. 2.2 is the replacement figure for reference. Immigrants from countries with birth rates similar to Afghanistan into developed countries reduce their birth rate to the cultural norm within a generation.
The question now arises as to whether reproduction in sapiens like in other mammals is responding to extrinsic or intrinsic factors. This is an important question. We, that is Us, are very good at proposing extrinsic factors that affect our behaviour and very poor at proposing intrinsic factors.
Extrinsic factors to reduce reprodcution are:
1) Capitalist/consumerist economic models of society where increasing family size is inversely correlated with wealth and therefore limiting full participation in the 'good life'.
2) Access to the means to control births, that is to say female access to chemical contraception and/or abortion.
Intrinsic factors are less tangible. Mammals, specifically female mammals of course, can regulate their reprodcution intrinsically; they can re-absorb their embryos. There is no hint by the way that male mammals have any role to play in the regulation of reproduction. Re-absorbtion is common in rat populations kept in laboratory conditions. In fact in my own work as a PhD student I went an entire year with a colony of rats 'refusing' to reproduce!
Why female mammals intrinsically regulate their reproductive roles is again a matter of speculation. Such speculation inlcudes obvious perceived ( by the animal) extrinsic factors such as food availability, food quality and the current climate as all being restrictors on a successful outcome regarding their infants' chances of reaching maturity.
It's all about signalling. That is to say extrinsic signals are preceived as funadamentally meaninful and which bring about profound changes in reproductive behaviour. P D James' book The Children of Men in 1992 described a future where for unknown reasons human reproduction had stopped. It reminded me of my lab rats. In fact 'lab-rat' is also a good descriptor of humans in advanced societies; temperature and light controlled, well-fed, good access to sexual mates and under-exercised. So I do wonder if in such an environment a signal is being recieved, the nature of which is unknown which says 'stop' to reprodcution.
What could this signal be? Is it a misreading of an ancient extrinsic signal? Is it existential, a form of self-conscious despair? Did a similar fate befall the Neanderthals/Denisovans 20,000-50,000 years ago?
Loads to speculate about but there surely will not be Sapiens around to speculate in 20,000 years time at the rate of depopulation emerging. What may remain is the logical descendant of the long journey of Homo, yes Homo Algorithmicus our AI progeny.
As a footnote, a falling population will have a powerful effect on the relationship between labour and capital, or indeed between serfs and their feudal lords. The aftermath of the Great Plague which destroyed so much of the population of europe, saw wages and life conditions improve radically for the survivors. Even with AI robot labour on the rise human labour will increase in value under any economic system. One day it may be priceless!
* 12 and counting
** 20-50, 000 years ago
*** 50 million deaths in Europe alone with 50-80% mortality,
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